Data Example:
Burnet County, Texas
A Closer Look Beneath the Surface
At the statewide level, Burnet County appears solidly Republican—with an average GOP vote share of 78.2% between 2012 and 2024. Evaluating at the county level reveals something more interesting: small, localized clusters that deviate from the county norm and signal emerging shifts in voter behavior.
What the County-Level Map Shows
Using spatial autocorrelation (Local Moran’s I), we analyzed precinct patterns within the county to detect clusters and outliers. The results reveal:
A Democratic-leaning cluster around Marble Falls
A battleground precinct at the county seat in Burnet
A pocket of partisan change in Granite Shoals, where GOP support dropped by 3%—a small but significant deviation in a stable county
These trends would be invisible on a basic red-blue map, but they come into focus through localized spatial analysis.
Understanding precinct-level dynamics
Detecting early signs of change
Targeting outreach down to the street level
Why This Matters
Burnet’s map shows how even "safe" counties can contain meaningful volatility. These micro-patterns are essential to local campaigns, but can offer granular voter targeting data for regional and national campaigns.
If you're running a local campaign or advising one, this is the kind of insight that turns general strategy into precise action.
